Thought provoking piece, I always say to myself with this feckless opposition concerned with rehashing the same playbooks the only hope for collapse is the IRI's own incompetence. However, I believe that the IRI - as a counterhegemonic force - has value to both China and Russia so it might not fall the same fate as Syria has unless another critical round of protests happen that lead to disintegration of centralized rule or at least security in critical transit and extraction areas.
The prospects of the eventual fall of the Islamic Republic is a wishful thinking that has been talked about for 44 years. Regime has learned to survive no matter how intense internal and external pressures are. Its hard power is deeply rooted inside Iran. Its ideology is widespread across the region and even after its supposed "fall", its influence and power will not fade away for decades. The US based world order is rapidly changing and IRI as one of the main counterhegemnonic forces in the world is nowhere near the end geopolitically. In the long term after Khamenei, IRI will likely become another Chinese Communist party.
Thought provoking piece, I always say to myself with this feckless opposition concerned with rehashing the same playbooks the only hope for collapse is the IRI's own incompetence. However, I believe that the IRI - as a counterhegemonic force - has value to both China and Russia so it might not fall the same fate as Syria has unless another critical round of protests happen that lead to disintegration of centralized rule or at least security in critical transit and extraction areas.
The prospects of the eventual fall of the Islamic Republic is a wishful thinking that has been talked about for 44 years. Regime has learned to survive no matter how intense internal and external pressures are. Its hard power is deeply rooted inside Iran. Its ideology is widespread across the region and even after its supposed "fall", its influence and power will not fade away for decades. The US based world order is rapidly changing and IRI as one of the main counterhegemnonic forces in the world is nowhere near the end geopolitically. In the long term after Khamenei, IRI will likely become another Chinese Communist party.